As some people are unconvinced by my argument that Kauto runs below form at Cheltenham perhaps looking at the horse's record on certain types of going will add something to the debate...
Good - 2/5 (40%) Last win on good ground was the 2008 King George. Two runs since a win on good ground.
Good/Good to soft in places - 1/5 (20%) Last win on this going, Oct 2006. Fallen twice (50%), pulled up once (20%) on this going.
Good to soft/Good in places - 4/5 (80%) Last run on this ground was a win in the 2011 King George.
Good to soft - 3/5 (60%) Last run on good to soft was a victory in the the 2011 Betfair Chase.
Good to soft/Soft in places - 2/3 (67%) Last win on this ground was the 2009 King George. One run since a victory on this ground.
Soft/Good to soft in places - 0/1 - a faller and then remounted in 2005.
Soft/Yielding to soft in places - 1/1 (100%) - Last run on this ground, a win in the JNwine Champion Chase at Down Royal in 2010.
Soft - 4/4 (100%) - Last run on this ground, a win in the JNwine Champion Chase at Down Royal in 2008.
Soft/Heavy in places - 2/2 (100%) - Last run on this ground was a victory in the the 2011 Betfair Chase.
To the sums then...
Where ground is predominantly Good - 3/10 (30%) Last win Dec 2008. Four runs since a win.
Where ground is predominantly Good to Soft - 9/13 (69%) LTO, a win in the 2011 King George.
Where ground is predominantly Soft - 7/8 (88%) Only defeat, a fall at Exeter in 2005.
The going at Cheltenham when Kauto has run is as follows:
2006 Champion Chase - Good/Good to Soft in Places - Fell
2007 Gold Cup - Good to Soft/Good in places - Won
2008 Gold Cup - Good to Soft - Second to Denman
2009 Gold Cup - Good to Soft/Good in places - Won
2010 Gold Cup - Good/Good to Soft in Places - Fell
2011 Gold Cup - Good - Third to Long Run
2012 Gold Cup - Good/Good to Soft in places - pulled up
Better start watering!
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