As always it is hard to predict what runs where in many of
these at this early stage but here goes.
Tuesday
Supreme Novice
Hurdle.
The beeting is dominated by Douvan who has looked very
impressive in Ireland and the Mullins novice hurdlers both trotted up last
year. L’AMI Serge heads the English challenge and has won his last 3, and
Jollyallan, who has only finished out the frame once in his 6 starts. Tell Us
More looks to be the Mullins back up and is likely to run else where. Cardinal
Walter trotted up at Doncaster and could be a live each way shot.
1. Douvan, 2 L’Ami Serge 3 Jollyallan
Arkle Chase
Un De Sceaux is a 4/7 shot and has looked very good, but is
worth opposing at that price. Vibrato Valtat has been very solid and should put
up a bold show but the 10/1 about Josses Hill makes no appeal, I would want
that for him to get round. Clarcam has solid form in Ireland and at 11/1 is the
best each way price against the favourite at 12/1.
1 Un De Sceaux, Vibrato Valtat 3, Clarcam.
Festival Handicap
Chase, Ned Stark and The Druids Nephew head the betting in a wide
open race, Cowards Clsoe of Paul Nicholls 1at 25/1 catches the eye and he won a
t Sandown last time out. Gervey Chambetain, Gtrand Vision, and the lightly
raced Pendra all have place chances.
1.Cowards Close, 2 Ned Stark, 3Pendra
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen is a very short price and whilst he may win, he is
worth taking on at 5/4. He has had 2 soft races this season and may be found
out in the hurly burly of this. The New One at
3/1 and Jezki at 5/1 make more appeal. Hurricane Fly at 8/1
has place claims but I can’t see him winning it again. Nothing else makes any
appeal and you can name your price any way which says it all.
1. The New One,2
Jezki,3 Faugheen
Mares Hurdle.
This should be a stroll for Annie Power now it is her target,
and despite her problems, she would not need to be more than about 80 % to win
this. Glen’s Melody and The Pirates Queen can follow her home
National Hunt
Chase.
If Don Poli runs here at 4/1 he is a great price, Sego
Success in his absence will run a big race, Very Wood is short enough at 6/1
given is based solely on his latest run, and I would be loathe to trust him.
Cause of Causes at 25/ 1is a decent each way price
.Perfect Gentleman is 12/1 with Paddy Power and nearly double
that with most others which is interesting.
1. Don Poli 2 Sego Success 3 Cause of Causes
Centenary Novice
Chase.
A race we could do without and I have not even heard of most
of the entries !
Generous Ransom is 8/1 favourite, with Thomas Crapper ( one I
know ) at 10/1. Generous Ranson did win a novice handicap chase at Cheltenham
last time out so has to be respected, Thomas Crapper has yet to win over
fences, which says much about those below him in the betting.
Keltus at 20/1 has place claims.
1. Generous Ransom 2 Thomas Crapper 3 Keltus.
Wednesday
Neptune
Novice Hurdle
Mullins Horses dominate this, Nicholas Canyon, Tell Us More,
Outlander, Shaneshill, fill the first 5 places in the betting.
Nicholas Canyon looks the stables main runner, but the
English have a live hope in Newbury winner Parlour games. If Tea for two runs
here 25/1 is a huge price.
1. Parlour Games, 2 Nicholas Canyon 3 Tea for Two
RSA Chase
There seems some variance of opinion between Giiginstown Stud and Willie Mullins as
to what should run where. Apparently the owners prefer Don Poli for this while
trainer prefers 4 miler, which meams trainers preferred for this, Valseur Lido
is likely to run in the JLT.
Apache Stronghold, Conygree, Southfield Theatre also figure
strongly. With the ground looking as though it will dry out, I count that as a
negative for Don Poli.
Conygree will hopefully run here and 7/2 looks very god
value.
1 Conygree 2 Southfield Theatre 3 Apache Stronghold
Coral Cup
Ncky Henderson has won 2 of the last 5 runnings and with his
hurdlers holding the season together, his representative will warrant close
inspection. Call The Cops and Bears Affair are his most prominent in the
market. Paul Nichiolls Aux Ptits Sains heads the market, Noble Endeavour and
Brother Brian are others that catch the eye.
1. Call The Cops, 2 Brother Brain 3 Noble Endeavour.
Champion Chase.
Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre head the market at 3/1 each
generally, then Doding Bullets, Champagene Fever 5/1 and 8/1 Mr Mole.
Sire De Grugy put up a super performance at Chepstow to prove
his well being and whilst Seven Barrows are very positive about Sprinter, we
really won’t know till he faces real pressure at the bottom of the hill. I was
convinced by his return, and I don’t overly the Nicholls pair, though they will
ensure this is truely run to really test sprinter. Champagne Fever has solid
place claims.
1. Sire De Grugy2 Champagne Fever 3 Sprinter Sacre
Cross Country
Chase.
Any Currency and Sire Collonges are winners over this course
which counts for plenty, Roi Du Mee would be very interesting even off top
weight if running here and the French have the third favourite.
1 Sire Collonges 2 Any Currency 3 Guess Again
Juvenile Handicap
Hurdle
Another race we could do without, and the last 3 winners
returning at 40/1, 33/1 25/1 prove the point.
1. Sebastian Beach 2 Officeux 3 Zarib
Champion Bumper.
The Irish have won it the
last 3 times, and it is usually a Mullins horse that goes off favourite, but
not always the stables first choice that wins.
Cos has been told course and distance winner Moon Racer for
the Pipe yard is strongly fancied and he trades at around 8/1 2nd
favourite. Mullins Bordini heads the market at 7/1. Vigil and Ghost River also
have good figures.
1 Ghost River 2 Vigil 3 Moon Racer
Thursday
JLT
Novice Chase
7 year olds have won 3 of the runnings of this, and the last
3 winners had won their previous race.
Apache Stronghold is the only match for those stats, and he
is third favourite behind Vautour and Ptit Zeig. Three Kingdoms, Hollow Penny ,
Irish Saint and Kilalla Quay have place claims.
1 Vautour 2 Irish Saint 3 Hollow Penny.
Pertemps Handicap
Hurdle
The Irish have not won this in the last 5 years, and four
winners have been in double figure prices from the bottom of the handicap.
Fingal bucked the trend as high weight winning favourite.
Philip Hobbs has another sound chance with Big Easy, Jon Jo
O’Neills Join the Clan, Tony Matins Mydor and Nicky Hendersons Big Hands Harry
also have good figures.
The Pipe yard has some interesting entries, Bygones Sovereign
particularly and Alan Kings The Tourad Man looks solid.
1 The Tourad Man, 2 Join The Clan 3 Mydor
Ryan Air Chase
This is now my favourite race of the festival I think and
again a fantastic line up. Balder Succes, Hidden Cyclone, Don Cossack, Ma
Filleule, John’s Spirit all have big chances.
Balder Succes has a shocking Cheltenham record, where as John
Sprit’s is excellent and though he has a little to find on the ratings
that helps. Ma Filleule gets 7lb
and that is likely to ensure she gets in the frame,
1 Johns Sprit 2 Ma Filleule 3 Don Cossack
World Hurdle.
After years of this being a closed shop, we have 5/1 jfs in
Zarkandar and Saphir Du Rheu. Reve De Sivola will probably find the ground
against him, Lieutenant Colonel , Dedigout give the Irish hope, whilst Rock On
Ruby will make it tough for all up the hill
1 Rock On Ruby 2 Lieutenent
Colonel.
3 Saphir Du Rheu
Plate Handicap
Chase.
Another race that has four winners in the last 5 at double figures
including a 50/1 shot, so any thing can win it ! It is no suprise the Pipe yard have won 3 of the last 5
runnings. Their Ballynagour won last year and heads the market but he is 11lb
higher and that rules him out for me.
1 Buywise 2 Killala Quay 3 Blood Cotil
Amateur Handicap
Chase
Another lottery and it would help to know is riding these !.
1 Clondaw Knight 2 Vintage Star 3 Grand Vision
The John
Torpey Memorial Trophy
February Total
Tony 140.1
561.3
Cliff
106.8
511.1
Lee 429.8
Neil 66.9 367.5
Peej 118.8 345.5
Steve 64
297.1
Martin 40.6 311.1
Cod
13.3 254.5
Bob 13.5 243.7
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