The punter gives it’s view on each strings
best chance of a festival winner. Every one has a 5 star chance with Altior, so here is the next best
Bob Bennie Des Dieux 5
Cliff Native
River 4
Cod Tiger Roll 5
Martin Topofthegame 4
Peej Topofthegame 4
Neil Native
River 4
Steve Bennie Des Dieux 5
Tony Bennie
Des Dieux5
Supreme Novice Hurdle,
2 really stand out here, Al Dancer and
Elixir Du Nutz, . At 8/1 Elixir Du Nutz is the e/w bet of the week, and he is a
course and distance winner, whether he can beat Al Dancer who is 3 points
better on my ratings is a different matter, but he has a big chance,
Brewinupastorm 25/1 and Commander of Fleet 40/1 also have entries, though
Commanders price suggests he runs else where.
Arkle Chase
Defi De Seuil 3/1 , Kalashnikov, 10/1 are
our only entries. Defi has a favourites chance but Philip Hobbs says he is more
likely to go for the JLTand I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kalashnikov
win this. . Lalor is the sentimental one who should also put up a bold
show
Ultima
handicap Chase
Mister Whitaker 10/1, Jerrysback, 20/1 Le
Breuil 20/1,
This will be wide open and last years winner
Coo Star Sivola is also in this at 20/1 and should run really
well again. The Hobbs team are running in to form, so If
Jerry is back, he should go close, and Mr Whittaker has claims, but I am going to
side with Coo Star Sivola
Champion
Hurdle
Buveur D’Air, 6/4 Laurina,7/2 Verdana Blue 8/1 Supasundae 14/1, Global Citizen 25/1, Silver Streak,33/1 Farclas, We Have a Dream 50/1
The one I fancy here and not in any strings
is Apples Jade. She has looked a different animal this season and gets 7lb from
Buveur D’Air and I think that is enough. Laurina also gets the 7lb but looks to
need further, and Verdana Blue, should also go well with the mares allowance, .
I can’t really make a case for the others, So Apples Jade it is.
Mares Hurdle
Willie Mullins says Bennie Des Dieux is his
best chance of the week, and as long as Apples Jade and Laurina go to the Champion
hurdle it is easy to see why. If you Say Run is the only other punter entry and
at 25/1 is short enough and has been disappointing.
Bennie it is.
Close
Brothers Novice Handicap Chase
They go 8/1 the field currently with
Onefortheroadtom a 33/1 chance. He is unlikely to get in and so Springtown Lake
and Good Man Pat are sound e/w bets.
NationaL
Hunt Chase
Dandy Dan 16/1 warmed up for this with a win
last week, and could well, Jerrysback and Le Breuil both 25/1 shots also hold
entries as does Uppertown Prince at 40/1 Hardline from Gordon Elliotts stable
looks to have a big shout if taking his chance, but Dandy Dan is a sound e/w
chance.
Wednesday
Ballymore
Novice Hurdle
Annamix 20/1 , Brewinupastorm 10/1,
Commander Of Fleet 12/1, Jarveys Plate,25/1 Pym, 33/1 are the punters representatives, but Champ
heads the market here and looks hard to beat having run an unbeaten sequence of
4 in good style this season. Brewinupastorm took a crashing fall last time and
that’s a big worry but has solid place claims on ratings as does Jarveys Palte.
However I take Champ to live up to his name.
RSA
Novice Chase
Santini 7/2 Topofthegame 7/2 White Moon
50/1, Jerrysback 33/1 are the punter entries. Unbeaten in 3 starts this season
Delta Work heads the market and with Santini now a doubt will be hard to beat
but Topofthegame is going to be my choice here
Coral
Cup Handicap Hurdle
Brewinupastorm 14/1, We Have A Dream 16/1,
Farclas 20/1 , Pym 20/1 , If You Say Run 25/1 represent punters here.
Farclas won at last years festival and makes
his handicap debut here and is a big price and worth an e/w interest. Paul
Nicholls Brio Conti looks nicely weighted and at around 16/1 is a sound e/w
shout.
Queen
Mother Champion Chase
Altior 2/5 , Un De Sceaux,7/1 Footpad 5/1, Sceau Royal, 14/1, Min5/1,
Politolouge 16/1, give punters plenty of options.
Bar a fall it surely is what follows Altior
home. Sceau Royal at 14/1 is the best each way bet of the rest at the prices
Cross
Country Chase
Tiger Roll, Ev, is our only entry and looks
as solid as Altior to me and I am surprised you can still get even money.
I would take Jossies Orders 6/1 to follow him home for the Straight
Forcast
Fred
Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
We have no entries, a race to avoid unless
you’re the pin, Band of Outlaws at 7/1 is a well named favourite for this race
which has no place at the festival. Philip Hobbs seems quite keen on Zafar and at
25/1 will be worth a look if he gets in.
Champion
Bumper
Silver Forever 14/1, The Glancing Queen 20/1
. This has the smallest entry I have seen for years, Mullins only has 2, which
accounts for a lot of the short fall. It could be an English winner with Harry
Fry’s Get In The Queue, Envoi Allen heads the Irish Challenge, Silver Forever
has place claims, as does The Glancing Queen on her course and distance win.
Thursday
JLT
Novice Chase
Defi Du Seuil, 3/1 Lostintranslation, 3/1
Topofthegame 5/1 , Kalashnikov11/1,
Represent punters. One I like at 9/1 is
Kildistart, but this seems to be Defi’s target and he will be hard to beat.
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
Blacklion and Splash of Ginge are in this,
but are hard to fancy, Philip Hobbs Samburu Shujaa at 8/1 is the choice.
Ryanair Chase
Footpad,7/2 Min 7/2, Un De Sceaux,6/1 Top Notch,7/1 Frodon 6/1. Terrefort,
20/1
Are our entries. Un De Sceaux is a big
price, and it would be great to see Top Notch win this. Min looks solid, not
sure about Footpad, but I will take a chance on Top Notch. Frodon is the one
who if he takes chance I would go for, but the Gold Cup seems his target at
press time
Stayers Hurdle
Faugheen 9/2, Supasundae 13/2, Melon 20/1,
are punter entries, but 7/4 favourite Paisley Park has looked special this
season and is the pick
Stable Plate
No punter entries, Siruh Du Lac, Tommy
Silver e/w shots.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Another race that’s not worthy of the
festival, we have no entries and I don’t really care but I used to work with a
girl called Trish who was quite posh, so Posh Trish it is.
Kim Muir
Le Breuil, 16/1 Onefortheroadtom, 33/1 are
our enties. Le Breuil could go well, Impulsive star at 10/1 is another I like along
with De Rasher Counter20/1 who I will side with to give the Lavelle stable a
double on the day
I will preview Friday next week but find it
strange that Presenting Percy heads the Gold Cup market as he has not jumped a
fence since winning the RSA. With Native River and Frodon sure to make it a
real test again, jumping will be really tested and he is under priced
The John Torpey Memorial Trophy
February Total
Bob
194.9
704.1
Steve
83.4
660.7
Cliff 115.9
610.6
Cod
158.2
614.6
Peej 117.9
571.8
Tony 194.2 449,6
Neil
41.7
446.4
Martin 16.1
341.6
News
The Punter has
been speaking with trainers ahead of Cheltenham and their views on the chances
of their punter horses and other leading fancies. This Week, Colin Tizzard and
Paul Nicholls.
Paul Nicholls
Clan Des Obeaux
As you know, he’s one of the favourites for the Gold Cup.
He’s had a great season, going very well in the Betfair Chase, went to Kempton,
won the King George very well and then won well at Ascot in the Betfair Denman
Chase. Everything with him has gone to plan, he looks great, he’s come out of
the race very well. He’s just progressive, he won the King George nicely, it
was a bit of a soft race the other day but he raced a Grade 1 winner in
Terrefort and absolutely murdered him. It was good to see him travel so well
the other day and jump, then quicken all the way to the line. He’s just taken a
while, he had various issues last season and from the day he won his
three-year-old hurdle we thought he’d make a proper chaser. People say he
hasn’t won at Cheltenham in four starts. Well, the first time he ran he was
only just beaten in a juvenile Listed race, he should never have run in the
Triumph Hurdle, he was then second as a five-year-old to Whisper in the Dipper,
and then he was second in the Caspian Caviar carrying 11-12 from a horse
carrying 10-2. He was still learning then. Now we are where we want to be, he’s
done all the talking in his last two runs and we’re very excited about running
him in the Gold Cup. Of all the horses running in the Gold Cup he is the
improving youngster, there’s a lot of older horses in it but we don’t know
where he’ll end up being rated.
Frodon
He's had an absolutely wonderful season this year, he’s
just improving all the time. He won the Old Roan first time out, then was
second at the November meeting where we probably didn’t ride him as we should
have done. A change of tactics and he won the Caspian Caviar Handicap under top
weight and then obviously won the Cotswold Chase the other day. We left plenty
to work on that day, you might’ve said he was too fat looking at him in the
paddock at Cheltenham, you could almost describe it as the first run of the
season again. We haven’t run purposely since January to keep him fresh and well
for Cheltenham. As you know there’s been a lot of debate as to what he’ll run
in, he’s in the Ryanair and the Gold Cup. I’ll make a plan when we can see
what’s going to run in what race and we’ll decide on which race he’s got the
best chance in. I’m not worried about the trip in the Gold Cup as he’ll gallop
and stay all day, but it will be a lot tougher race than the Ryanair over that
trip and the Ryanair may cut up. We’ll leave it late until making the decision.
I wouldn’t run him in the Gold Cup for the sake of it if we thought we could
win the Ryanair.
Topofthegame
He has entries in the RSA and the JLT, but he’s almost
certain to run in the RSA. The only way he’d run in the JLT is if Cheltenham is
a foot deep in mud. This is one of the tallest horses you’ll see in training,
he’s well over 17 hands, he’s huge as you can see, loads of ability. He won at
Sandown over hurdles, got beat a head in the Coral Cup at The Festival and then
went chasing. Bit of a disaster on his first run, he whipped round at the start
at Exeter in the race Defi Du Seuil won, basically the flag went down and he
just spooked and whipped round. It was all about experience that day and then
he went to Kempton at Christmas and finished second to La Bague Au Roi and that
looks really good form. He looked the winner that day but was a little bit
green. We purposely haven’t run him since, he goes well fresh and he goes
straight to the RSA.
Politologue
He's going to Aintree. John [Hales, owner] was
disappointed but if you took the winner out the three horses behind him
finished closely together. I think he ran okay, he's always had a breathing
issue, but he's better off going to Aintree and I said to John, let everyone
else go to Cheltenham we'll keep him fresh and go to Aintree, so that's what
we're doing.
Colin Tizzard
Native River
He was beaten by a very good horse at Haydock. We were
just a bit worried about his form right-handed going into the King George as
he'd been well beaten there as a novice a few years ago and five out you'd have
thought he was going to pull up. But he stayed on really strong and at the line
you'd have to say he'd have been right up there with them (Clan Des Obeaux and
Thistlecrack) with another two furlongs to run. So the Gold Cup is three miles,
two furlongs and the King George is a fast three miles. He was alright in his
away-day at Wincanton last week but he's never won a gallop in his life. He looks
fit to me now and I don't think he'll go away again. We'll school him this week
for a bit of practice and then hold our nerve. Hopefully Cheltenham gets some
rain as nobody wants it fast ground for the Festival and there's no doubt
softer conditions play to Native River's strengths as it slows the others down
a little bit. He's had the two races before Christmas and he's had his
racecourse gallop. It'll be lovely if Frodon runs too to give him some company
up front in a Gold Cup. Presenting Percy is obviously a good horse but I think
it's quite an open year and there's no absolute standout and it always comes
down to stamina - Native River has plenty of it.
Elegant Escape
He's won a Welsh National and he was second in the
Ladbrokes Trophy before just being touched off by Frodon the other day in the
Coltswold Chase at Cheltenham. He's done everything right, he's a young
improving horse and we've seen horses lower than his rating (162) go very close
and even win Gold Cups. I think in the last five strides Frodon actually found
a bit more last time, he picked up again when Elegant Escape nearly got to him,
but we got five or six lengths behind him at the top of the hill and we made up
that ground turning in which was good for a real stamina horse. My immediate thoughts
after that were that the Welsh National maybe just left its mark in the closing
stages but he's had six weeks or so now and he's looked very good on the
gallops. He's the younger horse and the one who might just step up again. His
last run was his highest-rated run and there should be more to come.
Elixir De Nutz
He's won his last three races and we took him to
Wincanton last Monday where he did a brilliant piece of work - he pulled five
lengths clear. We could give him another away-day before the Sky Bet Supreme
but we might just trust ourselves. He looks hard-fit to me and his form stands
up to anybody's in the race. He pulls quite hard but goes well from the front,
he's a strong front-runner and won't stop so the race will suit him. There's no
confirmed jockey yet but we'll see if Harry Cobden is available. Tom O'Brien
did a magnificent job on him at Sandown anyway.
Lostintranslation
I keep looking now and wondering whether we should have
had him in the three-miler (RSA Chase) but when the entries went in he was so
good over two and a half. He's just a lovely chaser and he's got form around
Cheltenham. I'm sure they'll go a good pace and hopefully he'll jump off handy.
We're hoping we'll have him around as a Gold Cup horse next year as he's not short
of stamina.
Kim Bailey has announced his top novice chaser Vinndication will miss
next week's Cheltenham Festival. Bailey said "We took Vinndication and Wandrin Star
to Newbury early yesterday morning, and sadly I was not happy with the way
Vinndication went, so Cheltenham for him this year will be missed."(It is)
so frustrating for all his owners. He is a still a weak and immature horse, and
it is showing. There will be other big days for him."
Noel Meade reports Road To
Respect firmly on course for the Magners
Cheltenham Gold Cup. Meade said: "Road To Respect is in good form. He has
one piece of work to do and that should leave him right."He's in good
shape and fingers crossed everything will go well between now and the Gold
Cup."
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